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Step 3. Develop your Plans
The crucial test of effective warning
Risk is not just about hazards. Risk is about the interaction of hazards and vulnerability. The vulnerability profile of entities at risk will vary - depending on entity type, location, exposure, & the quality of management.
If we can not, or do not, prevent a risk by eliminating the source of risk (e.g. the hazard) - then we must, as a duty of care, ensure that those at risk are at least informed and warned.
It is not sufficient to issue a warning message or a warning signal. The key is to ensure appropriate protective behavior is undertaken. This requires a comprehensive and integrated warning system.
Click here for a paper on Vulnerability & Warning.
1. Prediction
Issues around scoping the extreme event – includes measures of speed of onset; duration; strength; area affected. Further, this requires appreciating the uncertainty of those measures.
2. Interpretation
Issues around “what does this prediction mean”?
Matters of “emergency management intelligence” – requires a focus on impact and vulnerability.
3. Message Construction
What are the necessary elements of a warning communication and message? Issues around trust, credibility and formatting to ensure understanding and provide sufficient advice to empower protective action.
4 Communication
From a system perspective dissemination is the “hinge”. Between prediction and action are technical and social issues - about specific infrastructure; communications platforms; the use of multiple communication channels; and overcoming cultural barriers.
5. Protective Behaviour
The key performance criterion. Did the system “elicit appropriate protective behaviour”?
An ABC of message maps
In exercising due care, we expect those responsible for the effectiveness
of warning systems to develop their emergency management capability.
What should you know and do about risks and their management?
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